Skip to content

2022 Senate · PA

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 47.6%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 47.6 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (4.913) = -5.913
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.913| = 5.913

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81457, race ID 8945 (538 database).