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2022 Senate · WI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 51%

R+4.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.41% · Republican 50.41%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 51 = -4.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.405 − 50.413 = -1.008
  3. Signed miss = -4.60 − (-1.008) = -3.593
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.593| = 3.593

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81445, race ID 8951 (538 database).