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2022 Governor · KS

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 44.1%

D+4.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.54% · Republican 47.33%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 44.1 = 4.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.539 − 47.333 = 2.206
  3. Signed miss = 4.60 − (2.206) = 2.394
  4. Absolute miss = |2.394| = 2.394

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81438, race ID 8965 (538 database).