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2022 House · IA-3

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.57% · Republican 50.26%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.569 − 50.259 = -0.690
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-0.690) = -1.310
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.310| = 1.310

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81431, race ID 9152 (538 database).