Skip to content

2022 House · NV-1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 480 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 41.9% · Republican 53.5%

R+11.6

The certified result

Democrat 51.57% · Republican 45.96%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.9 − 53.5 = -11.60
  2. Actual margin = 51.571 − 45.962 = 5.609
  3. Signed miss = -11.60 − (5.609) = -17.210
  4. Absolute miss = |-17.210| = 17.210

The poll overstated the Republican by 17.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81430, race ID 9233 (538 database).