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2022 Senate · NV

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 2,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 45.8% · Republican 51%

R+5.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.8 − 51 = -5.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = -5.20 − (0.777) = -5.977
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.977| = 5.977

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81430, race ID 8937 (538 database).