2022 Governor · PA
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 460 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 40%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%
D+14.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (14.771) = -0.771
- Absolute miss = |-0.771| = 0.771
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81421, race ID 8979 (538 database).