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2022 Senate · NY

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-30 (9 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 38.5%

D+18.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.65% · Republican 37.67%

D+14.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 38.5 = 18.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.648 − 37.666 = 13.982
  3. Signed miss = 18.50 − (13.982) = 4.518
  4. Absolute miss = |4.518| = 4.518

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81419, race ID 8939 (538 database).