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2022 Senate · NV

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.777) = 0.223
  4. Absolute miss = |0.223| = 0.223

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81418, race ID 8937 (538 database).