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2022 Governor · MI

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 1,584 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 50.9% · Republican 44.5%

D+6.4

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.9 − 44.5 = 6.40
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = 6.40 − (10.531) = -4.131
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.131| = 4.131

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81408, race ID 8969 (538 database).