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2022 Senate · MO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 40.1% · Republican 53.6%

R+13.5

The certified result

Democrat 42.18% · Republican 55.43%

R+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.1 − 53.6 = -13.50
  2. Actual margin = 42.177 − 55.432 = -13.255
  3. Signed miss = -13.50 − (-13.255) = -0.245
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.245| = 0.245

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81405, race ID 8936 (538 database).