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2022 House · NM-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 302 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 43.54% · Republican 54.12%

R+10.6

The certified result

Democrat 50.34% · Republican 49.64%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.54 − 54.12 = -10.58
  2. Actual margin = 50.337 − 49.636 = 0.701
  3. Signed miss = -10.58 − (0.701) = -11.281
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.281| = 11.281

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81389, race ID 9252 (538 database).