Skip to content

2022 House · NM-1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 372 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 54.1% · Republican 42.67%

D+11.4

The certified result

Democrat 55.75% · Republican 44.23%

D+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.1 − 42.67 = 11.43
  2. Actual margin = 55.746 − 44.234 = 11.512
  3. Signed miss = 11.43 − (11.512) = -0.082
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.082| = 0.082

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81389, race ID 9251 (538 database).