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2022 Senate · PA

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (4.913) = -2.913
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.913| = 2.913

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81384, race ID 8945 (538 database).