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2022 Governor · OK

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 42.6% · Republican 52.2%

R+9.6

The certified result

Democrat 41.78% · Republican 55.45%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.6 − 52.2 = -9.60
  2. Actual margin = 41.785 − 55.449 = -13.664
  3. Signed miss = -9.60 − (-13.664) = 4.064
  4. Absolute miss = |4.064| = 4.064

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81375, race ID 8977 (538 database).