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2022 Senate · OK

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 34.2% · Republican 61.5%

R+27.3

The certified result

Democrat 32.10% · Republican 64.30%

R+32.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34.2 − 61.5 = -27.30
  2. Actual margin = 32.099 − 64.303 = -32.204
  3. Signed miss = -27.30 − (-32.204) = 4.905
  4. Absolute miss = |4.905| = 4.905

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81375, race ID 8943 (538 database).