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2022 Governor · WI

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 801 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.7% · Republican 50.1%

R+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.75%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.7 − 50.1 = -4.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.149 − 47.752 = 3.397
  3. Signed miss = -4.40 − (3.397) = -7.797
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.797| = 7.797

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81370, race ID 8986 (538 database).