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2022 Senate · WI

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 801 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43.2% · Republican 51.6%

R+8.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.41% · Republican 50.41%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.2 − 51.6 = -8.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.405 − 50.413 = -1.008
  3. Signed miss = -8.40 − (-1.008) = -7.393
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.393| = 7.393

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81370, race ID 8951 (538 database).