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2022 Senate · AZ

Wick · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,122 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.2% · Republican 46.9%

D+2.3

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.2 − 46.9 = 2.30
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = 2.30 − (4.888) = -2.587
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.587| = 2.587

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81366, race ID 8919 (538 database).