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2022 House · FL-4

University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 413 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 50%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.55% · Republican 60.45%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 50 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.548 − 60.450 = -20.902
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-20.902) = 8.902
  4. Absolute miss = |8.902| = 8.902

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81358, race ID 9081 (538 database).