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2022 House · FL-13

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 509 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 45.9%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 45.05% · Republican 53.14%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 45.9 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 45.053 − 53.137 = -8.084
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (-8.084) = 7.484
  4. Absolute miss = |7.484| = 7.484

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81352, race ID 9090 (538 database).