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2022 Senate · NY

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 52.8% · Republican 39.6%

D+13.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.65% · Republican 37.67%

D+14.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.8 − 39.6 = 13.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.648 − 37.666 = 13.982
  3. Signed miss = 13.20 − (13.982) = -0.782
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.782| = 0.782

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81337, race ID 8939 (538 database).