Skip to content

2022 Senate · PA

Wick · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 47.6%

R+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 47.6 = -1.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = -1.70 − (4.913) = -6.613
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.613| = 6.613

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81327, race ID 8945 (538 database).