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2022 Governor · NV

Echelon Insights · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.510) = 1.510
  4. Absolute miss = |1.510| = 1.510

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81312, race ID 8972 (538 database).