2022 Governor · CA
Public Policy Institute of California · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 1,111 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 36%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 59.18% · Republican 40.82%
D+18.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 36 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 59.179 − 40.821 = 18.358
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (18.358) = 0.641
- Absolute miss = |0.641| = 0.641
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81300, race ID 8956 (538 database).