2022 Governor · NY
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 593 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 43%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.70% · Republican 41.43%
D+7.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 48.697 − 41.429 = 7.268
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (7.268) = 3.732
- Absolute miss = |3.732| = 3.732
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81283, race ID 8975 (538 database).