2022 Senate · NY
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 593 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 41%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.65% · Republican 37.67%
D+14.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 41 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 51.648 − 37.666 = 13.982
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (13.982) = 1.018
- Absolute miss = |1.018| = 1.018
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81283, race ID 8939 (538 database).