2022 Governor · IA
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 623 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 54%
R+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.53% · Republican 58.04%
R+18.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 54 = -12.00
- Actual margin = 39.526 − 58.042 = -18.516
- Signed miss = -12.00 − (-18.516) = 6.517
- Absolute miss = |6.517| = 6.517
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81281, race ID 8964 (538 database).