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2022 Senate · IA

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 623 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 52%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.84% · Republican 56.02%

R+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.836 − 56.015 = -12.179
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-12.179) = 4.179
  4. Absolute miss = |4.179| = 4.179

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81281, race ID 8930 (538 database).