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2022 Senate · IL

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 49.1% · Republican 39.3%

D+9.8

The certified result

Democrat 56.82% · Republican 41.50%

D+15.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.1 − 39.3 = 9.80
  2. Actual margin = 56.823 − 41.500 = 15.323
  3. Signed miss = 9.80 − (15.323) = -5.523
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.523| = 5.523

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81279, race ID 8928 (538 database).