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2022 House · NC-13

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 584 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 43%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.59% · Republican 48.41%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 43 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.593 − 48.407 = 3.186
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (3.186) = -2.185
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.185| = 2.185

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81278, race ID 9293 (538 database).