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2022 Governor · SD

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 38.6% · Republican 57.5%

R+18.9

The certified result

Democrat 35.17% · Republican 61.98%

R+26.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.6 − 57.5 = -18.90
  2. Actual margin = 35.168 − 61.981 = -26.813
  3. Signed miss = -18.90 − (-26.813) = 7.912
  4. Absolute miss = |7.912| = 7.912

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81275, race ID 8982 (538 database).