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2022 Senate · SD

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 58%

R+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 26.15% · Republican 69.63%

R+43.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 58 = -31.00
  2. Actual margin = 26.150 − 69.627 = -43.477
  3. Signed miss = -31.00 − (-43.477) = 12.477
  4. Absolute miss = |12.477| = 12.477

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81275, race ID 8947 (538 database).