2022 Governor · FL
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 622 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 55%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.97% · Republican 59.37%
R+19.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 39.971 − 59.374 = -19.403
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-19.403) = 5.403
- Absolute miss = |5.403| = 5.403
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81262, race ID 8959 (538 database).