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2022 Senate · NC

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 1,130 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.27% · Republican 50.50%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.273 − 50.499 = -3.226
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-3.226) = 3.226
  4. Absolute miss = |3.226| = 3.226

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81261, race ID 8940 (538 database).