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2022 Senate · OH

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,886 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 44.2% · Republican 48.3%

R+4.1

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.2 − 48.3 = -4.10
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -4.10 − (-6.112) = 2.012
  4. Absolute miss = |2.012| = 2.012

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81245, race ID 8942 (538 database).