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2022 Governor · CT

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 53.4% · Republican 42.7%

D+10.7

The certified result

Democrat 54.44% · Republican 43.08%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.4 − 42.7 = 10.70
  2. Actual margin = 54.437 − 43.081 = 11.356
  3. Signed miss = 10.70 − (11.356) = -0.656
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.656| = 0.656

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81242, race ID 8958 (538 database).