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2022 Senate · PA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 1,084 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 49%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 49 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (4.913) = -2.913
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.913| = 2.913

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81233, race ID 8945 (538 database).