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2022 Governor · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 727 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 40.9% · Republican 53.8%

R+12.9

The certified result

Democrat 41.47% · Republican 56.98%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.9 − 53.8 = -12.90
  2. Actual margin = 41.472 − 56.985 = -15.513
  3. Signed miss = -12.90 − (-15.513) = 2.613
  4. Absolute miss = |2.613| = 2.613

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81231, race ID 8973 (538 database).