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2022 Senate · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 727 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 45.4%

D+4.1

The certified result

Democrat 53.49% · Republican 44.44%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 45.4 = 4.10
  2. Actual margin = 53.495 − 44.435 = 9.060
  3. Signed miss = 4.10 − (9.060) = -4.961
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.961| = 4.961

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81231, race ID 8938 (538 database).