2022 Governor · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 1,879 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 41%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.44% · Republican 43.08%
D+11.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 41 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 54.437 − 43.081 = 11.356
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (11.356) = 3.644
- Absolute miss = |3.644| = 3.644
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81218, race ID 8958 (538 database).