2022 Senate · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 1,879 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 41%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.65% · Republican 42.54%
D+13.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 41 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 55.654 − 42.539 = 13.115
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (13.115) = 1.885
- Absolute miss = |1.885| = 1.885
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81218, race ID 8923 (538 database).