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2022 Governor · TX

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 42.1% · Republican 51.8%

R+9.7

The certified result

Democrat 43.86% · Republican 54.76%

R+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.1 − 51.8 = -9.70
  2. Actual margin = 43.857 − 54.759 = -10.902
  3. Signed miss = -9.70 − (-10.902) = 1.203
  4. Absolute miss = |1.203| = 1.203

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81210, race ID 8984 (538 database).