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2022 Senate · OH

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 1,141 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-6.112) = 5.112
  4. Absolute miss = |5.112| = 5.112

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81208, race ID 8942 (538 database).