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2022 Governor · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 541 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (10.531) = -8.531
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.531| = 8.531

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81174, race ID 8969 (538 database).