2022 House · MN-1
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2022-07-28 (12 days before the election) · 544 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 46%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.00% · Republican 50.95%
R+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 46 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 47.003 − 50.951 = -3.948
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-3.948) = -4.052
- Absolute miss = |-4.052| = 4.052
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 79597, race ID 9481 (538 database).