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2004 President · national

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 3,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 49%

R+3.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.13% · Republican 50.57%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 49 = -3.50
  2. Actual margin = 48.130 − 50.573 = -2.443
  3. Signed miss = -3.50 − (-2.443) = -1.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.056| = 1.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77281, race ID 39 (538 database).