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2004 President · national

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 3,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 47.9%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 48.13% · Republican 50.57%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 47.9 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 48.130 − 50.573 = -2.443
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (-2.443) = 1.644
  4. Absolute miss = |1.644| = 1.644

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77269, race ID 39 (538 database).