2021 Governor · VA
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2021-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 48%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.64% · Republican 50.57%
R+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 48.644 − 50.574 = -1.930
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.930) = 0.930
- Absolute miss = |0.930| = 0.930
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77164, race ID 8989 (538 database).