2021 Governor · VA
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2021-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 571 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.64% · Republican 50.57%
R+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 48.644 − 50.574 = -1.930
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.930) = 2.930
- Absolute miss = |2.930| = 2.930
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77148, race ID 8989 (538 database).